Day 85 of 150 Logic Difficulty 4/10
Knowing the outcome makes us think we predicted it
Quick answer
Knowing the outcome makes us think we predicted it. Today's question (Hindsight bias) asks about a finding from Fischhoff, B. in 1975. The correct option is Overestimate how predictable the outcome was — the 'I knew it all along' effect — full explanation, primary source, and glossary cross-links below.
Today's question
After learning the outcome of an uncertain event, people tend to do what when asked what they would have predicted beforehand?
Reveal the answer and explanation
Correct: B — Overestimate how predictable the outcome was — the 'I knew it all along' effect
Fischhoff (1975) found that once people learn how an event turned out, they retrospectively inflate the probability they would have assigned to that outcome — the hindsight bias, or 'I knew it all along' effect. Even when participants were warned about the bias and asked to ignore the outcome, the distortion persisted. Hindsight bias makes the past seem more predictable than it really was, undermines learning from experience, and complicates legal judgements of negligence (where outcome knowledge contaminates assessments of foreseeability). It is one of the most robust biases in the judgement-and-decision literature.
About the source
Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1(3), 288–299.
Every Cognition Bible question cites a primary source — a paper, book chapter, or monograph that exists, that we can point to on Google Scholar, and whose finding the question accurately summarizes. No fabricated authority strings, no name-drops without paper-level grounding.
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