Day 25 of 150 Logic Difficulty 4/10
Random anchors warp estimates by roughly a factor of two
Quick answer
Random anchors warp estimates by roughly a factor of two. Today's question (Anchoring) asks about a finding from Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. in 1974. The correct option is A spinning wheel of completely irrelevant numbers — full explanation, primary source, and glossary cross-links below.
Today's question
Tversky & Kahneman showed that participants' estimates of the percentage of African nations in the United Nations were biased by:
Reveal the answer and explanation
Correct: B — A spinning wheel of completely irrelevant numbers
Before estimating, participants spun a rigged wheel that stopped at either 10 or 65. The wheel's number — obviously random and disclosed as such — biased final estimates upward or downward by roughly a factor of two. Anchoring is robust even when the anchor is implausible, explicitly random, or in a different unit from the target judgment. The effect drives negotiation, real-estate pricing, and judicial sentencing.
About the source
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185(4157), 1124–1131.
Every Cognition Bible question cites a primary source — a paper, book chapter, or monograph that exists, that we can point to on Google Scholar, and whose finding the question accurately summarizes. No fabricated authority strings, no name-drops without paper-level grounding.
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